Macro Bullish Trend Continues

As the Daily Sell Signal Wraps Up, Looking at Time & Price Targets

Following our prediction of a Daily Sell Signal beginning Wednesday, June 11th, at an S&P 500 high of 6,070, we projected a target low of at least 5,935.

The market subsequently dropped to 5,920 after hours but swiftly rebounded above 5,950 before the New York opening.

Despite concerns over inflation, tariffs, geopolitical tensions in Iran, and other macroeconomic challenges, the market has limited the Daily Sell Signal decline to just 150 points—a modest pullback by most measures. The market's resilience amid these headwinds has been notable.

Not only has the market held up strongly, but it is now completing the Daily Sell Signal and is poised to begin its next upward move.

In this update, we’ll outline what to buy and the optimal timing for purchases.

We’ll also explore broader macroeconomic trends expected to emerge later this year, explaining why, despite the remarkable rally from 4,800, the bull market’s days may be numbered, with a potential reversal looming sooner than many anticipate.

Let’s get into the details…

First, a quick take on global liquidity and what is currently driving stock market moves higher around the world.

• Central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), and People’s Bank of China (PBOC), are actively influencing liquidity through low interest rates and strategic policy signals. The ECB has already cut rates, and China has injected significant liquidity (¥2.27T, the largest since 2020).

• China’s actions directly increase M2 money supply, with global M2 reaching $138T, close to an all-time high. The Fed’s pause on quantitative tightening (QT) and $10T bond purchase program further supports liquidity.

• U.S. M2 is now $21.86T, up five months straight. And the Big Beautiful Bill going through Congress is showing no signs of fiscal restraint. It appears that the administration has now chosen growth over deficit concerns.

• Governments are increasing spending to counter trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions. In addition to the U.S. fiscal expansion that is expected in 2026 and the euro area plans significant defense and infrastructure investments.

The Bottom Line: the party continues. For now.

Market Outlook

The U.S. market continues its bullish trend, marked by higher lows and higher highs. As noted earlier in the newsletter, the bullish sequence that began in early April is set to persist for some time.

This Bullish Sequence remains unbroken and will continue until the final Time & Price targets are achieved.

I believe we are in the late stages of a broader trend that started in 2009, with a market peak anticipated in the coming months, followed by a substantial decline over the subsequent 18 months.

With this perspective, let’s explore what that scenario might entail.