The Melt-Up Continues

Market Remains On the Path Towards Our Long-Term Targets

Last weekend’s SubStack centered on our anticipation of a market breakout, propelling the S&P 500 toward 6,880+ to fulfill the Daily Buy Signal.

On Friday, the index peaked at 6,807 before easing off slightly toward the close.

As I write this, Sunday evening futures have kicked off with a 46-point gap higher to 6,837—now just 43 points shy of our minimum target.

In today’s edition, we’ll explore the potential paths forward once the market hits that mark and completes the Daily Buy Signal, likely sometime this week.

Could we face a large downturn?

Or could it simply be a routine dip before the index charges into one of the year’s most bullish stretches—November and December?

Let’s dive into it.

Following the mini-crash that rattled markets on October 10th, the S&P 500 settled into a sideways grind, tracing a textbook triangle consolidation.

The pivotal takeaway—as I noted in our Discord—was the Daily Buy Signal turning up the very next session, October 13th, and remaining turned up ever since, even amid some sharp intraday volatility.

This setup left the market coiled for fresh highs, and that’s precisely what unfolded.

With the signal now nearing completion and our baseline target within striking distance, it’s time to game out the shape of the ensuing pullback.

Daily Buy Signal Completes This Week

To clarify upfront: The Daily Buy Signal persists until it both turns down and has a Daily Close below Pivot—only then does a Daily Sell Signal activate.

That said, while I can pinpoint an estimated window for the trigger, the market stays in buy mode until those criteria are met.

As I shared on X, I’m eyeing completion of the current Daily Buy Signal between Wednesday, October 29th, and Friday, October 31st.

With that in mind, let’s map out the potential downside levels once it fires.