The Wrap Up: Get Ready

The Next Stage in Our Plan for the July & August Sequence

Last week’s SubStack forecast a market rally, targeting the $SPX 6,280–6,310 range by Monday, July 7th.

As of Friday’s close, the market peaked at $SPX 6,284, hitting our predicted range with pinpoint accuracy.

This SubStack continues to deliver precise market calls, cementing its value as a powerful tool in your trading and investing arsenal, whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor.

Now, as we head into the July 4th weekend, $SPX futures are down 40 points. Has the market topped out on Friday, or is there still room to climb higher?

In this update, we’ll address that question and share our refreshed Macro outlook, detailing where the market is headed, the drivers behind its trajectory, and the timeframe for maintaining a bullish stance.

As highlighted in previous editions, we believe this bullish cycle has an eventual End Game. We’ll outline our perspective on when and how this phase might unfold.

To frame our analysis, here’s our updated liquidity framework. If you recall our last Stack’s liquidity update, note a small tweak to bullet point #2.

• Globally, central banks are actively reducing interest rates

• M2 money supply is near all-time highs but may be peaking out

• The Fed has paused QT and launched a $10T bond purchase program.

• The Big Beautiful Bill shows no indication of fiscal restraint.

In this update, we’ll cover:

• Expected start date of the coming pullback

• Our targets for the pullback

• Our targets for the rally following the pullback

We’ll also examine key macroeconomic trends anticipated later this year and explain why we think the bull market’s days are numbered.

Within this, I’ll present two potential scenarios for year-end. These two scenarios will continue to be updated with each subsequent version of this SubStack as the market structure unfolds. Let’s get into the details…

Market Outlook

As mentioned in the previous newsletter, the bullish sequence that started in early April still has legs. From our perspective the top is not in.

I still hold the view that we are in the later stages of a broader market cycle that began in 2009. Once the Time & Price targets are met in this 17-year cycle, I anticipate a significant decline over the following 18 months.

With this in mind, let’s examine how this might unfold.